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Built on Polymarket’s own settlement record

Find the traders who
actually know what they’re doing.

Paste any Polymarket wallet and find out whether its record is real skill or a run of good luck — then, if the evidence holds up, copy its trades automatically. Anyone can get lucky. We tell you the difference.

Try it on any Polymarket wallet — no account needed.

One free analysis now, five more when you sign up (no card). It reads the wallet’s whole settled history, so the first run can take up to a minute.

Live analysis
   
Profit on Polymarket $0

 

 

Every figure below is measured, never predicted.

Three real shapes a record can take. The middle one is the usual answer — including for wallets showing enormous profit.

Lockstep Markets is software, not a broker. We are not Polymarket and are not affiliated with it. We never take a deposit, and your money stays in your own wallet. Analysing a wallet needs only its public address. Copying trades is optional: it needs the private key of a trading wallet you fund — keep it separate from your main one — which we encrypt and store so the bot can sign your copies. How we protect it. Published from the United Kingdom by Daniel Montgomery-Smith. Who we are · FAQ.

30+settled markets before we’ll judge
Mosttop traders fail our bar
Provenwallets only, for real money

A big profit doesn’t always mean a good trader

In markets that pay all-or-nothing, one three-cent winner can outweigh a hundred losses — so a spectacular record and a lucky coin look identical from the outside. So we ask a different question:

Did they win more often than their own prices said they should?

Buy ten outcomes at 30¢ and you should win about three. Winning six is the one thing stake size and long-odds luck cannot manufacture — the difference between a profitable wallet and a skilled one.

Every dot is one settled market, placed by the price they paid. The dashed line is fair value, what you would win with no edge at all. A skilled trader’s curve sits above it.

Why we built it this way

We know because we built the other product first: find profitable wallets, copy them, hope they keep winning. Then we tested it.

Across 3,532 settled markets, the wallets we tracked won 2,104 times. Their own entry prices implied about 2,087. That difference is nothing at all.

They made money. Their results showed no measurable edge. So we did not ship it — we shipped the measurement that told us not to, because that is the part with real value, and because you deserve to run it before you follow anyone.

Paste a wallet. Get a verdict in plain words.

We resolve every market it has settled against Polymarket’s own record and give one of five answers, with the arithmetic beside it.

  • Edge detected — they beat their own entry prices by more than luck comfortably explains. Rare.
  • Ahead, but within luck — better than their prices, but not by enough to be sure. Interesting, not conclusive.
  • No detectable edge — they win about as often as their prices imply. The usual answer, including for wallets up hundreds of thousands.
  • Worse than the prices they pay — they have lost to their own entry prices.
  • Not enough history — under 30 settled markets. Nothing honest can be said yet, so we say that instead of guessing.

Each one comes with the figures behind it: wins against expected, the edge in standard deviations, how fast their markets resolve, how much of their activity is too fast to copy, and whether one market carries the whole result.

What you can do with it

Check your own wallet

No one can judge their own record from the inside. We will tell you whether yours is skill, or too small yet to mean anything.

Read the screened leaderboard

Polymarket’s top traders, re-ranked every few hours on whether they beat their own prices. Some weeks nobody clears the bar, and we say so.

Test before you risk anything

Follow a wallet with notional money at live prices, or replay its history through your own rules, with how much of the result rests on its best few trades.

Then copy automatically

Connect a dedicated trading wallet and mirror their trades within the bankroll, scale and caps you set.

By default, real orders only go behind wallets that cleared the bar; anything else stays in simulation. You can turn that off in Settings once you have read the verdict. It is your money and your call.

Pricing

Free £0
  • 5 wallet analyses, no card
  • The full verdict and every figure behind it
  • The screened leaderboard
  • Simulator with notional money

Enough to check yourself and a couple of traders.

Pro £60/month
  • 200 analyses a day — screen properly instead of spot-checking
  • Deeper backtesting
  • Copy up to 10 wallets at once
  • Cancel any time, from Settings

Or pay once: £320 for six months, £570 for twelve.

Unlimited £90/month
  • Everything in Pro
  • Copy as many wallets as you like — no cap
  • Track an unlimited number of wallets
  • Higher backtest allowance

Or pay once: £480 for six months, £860 for twelve.

Wallets already scored stay readable whatever plan you are on, so the leaderboard keeps working after your free analyses are gone.

Who you’re buying from

Lockstep Markets is run by Daniel Montgomery-Smith, a sole trader in the United Kingdom. That is the name on the terms, the name on your receipt, and the person who answers hello@lockstepmarkets.com.

The business model is deliberately boring: you pay a monthly subscription for software. There is no deposit, no minimum balance, no account manager, no withdrawal to request and nothing to unlock. We earn exactly the same whether you make money or lose it — which is the only arrangement under which our opinion of a wallet is worth reading.

Card payments are handled by Stripe; your card details never reach us. You can cancel yourself in Settings at any time without asking anyone. More about the business.

What this is not

It is not a broker, an exchange, a fund or a payment service. We never take a deposit: your money stays in your own wallet, so there is no balance here to withdraw. We are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and nothing here is a personal recommendation. If you switch on copy trading, the software places orders for you automatically, from your own wallet, following the wallets and limits you choose.

It is not advice and it is not a prediction. Every figure describes settled history. A trader who has shown an edge can stop having one; markets change and strategies stop working. Clearing our bar is not a promise that anything will work.

If you enable copying, use a separate wallet funded only with money you can afford to lose. You can lose some or all of it.

LockstepMarkets

At least 10 characters.

Free accounts run the bot in demo mode with paper money. Live copying requires a subscription.

Reset your password

Check your inbox

If an account exists for that address, a reset link is on its way. The link expires in 1 hour.

Two-step verification

Enter the six-digit code from your authenticator app. One of your backup codes works too.

Set a new password

At least 10 characters.

Find out who is actually good — then, if you want, follow them.

← Back to the home page

LockstepMarkets

Subscription software that scores public Polymarket trading wallets on their settled history, and can mirror the ones you choose. Sold as a monthly or prepaid plan. Not advice, not a broker, not a fund, and not affiliated with Polymarket. Customer funds stay in customers’ own wallets.

Operated by Daniel Montgomery-Smith, a sole trader in the United Kingdom. Full contact details are in the Terms of Service.

Plans

Pro — £60/month, or £320 for six months, £570 for twelve.

Unlimited — £90/month, or £480 for six months, £860 for twelve.

There is a free tier. No card is needed to try it.

Cancelling

Cancel a subscription yourself in Settings, at any time. You keep access until the end of the period you have paid for and are not charged again. Prepaid periods never renew.

Refunds and full terms

Guides

Polymarket copy trading

Polymarket wallet analyzer

Skilled or lucky? How to tell

Find a trader’s wallet address

Contact

hello@lockstepmarkets.com

About Lockstep Markets

FAQ

Security

Terms of Service

Privacy Policy

Setup guide

Copying trades risks your money. You can lose some or all of what you put in. Past results, including ours, do not predict future results.

This needs a paid plan

Pro — £60/month

    Cancel any time from Settings. Wallets already scored stay readable on the free plan, so nothing you have looked at disappears.

    Before you pay

    Are you 18 or over?

    Read this before you sign up

    This explains exactly what the service does and doesn’t do. It’s short, and it matters.

    What this service does

    It reads publicly available Polymarket trading history and tells you whether a wallet’s record shows measurable skill, or whether it is consistent with luck. It also lets you follow wallets with simulated money to see what a strategy would have done.

    What it does not do

    • It does not predict what any market will do.
    • It does not tell you who to follow. It reports what the record shows and leaves the decision with you.
    • It does not place a real order behind any wallet that has not cleared the evidence bar, unless you deliberately switch that off in Settings having read the verdict.

    If you choose to copy with real money

    This is optional, off by default, and available only on a paid plan. By default it runs only for wallets that cleared the bar; you can choose to include ones that did not, and we will still tell you they did not. If you turn any of it on:

    • You must use a separate, dedicated wallet, funded only with money you are prepared to lose. Never your main wallet.
    • Your key is encrypted the moment it arrives and never displayed again. But the bot must decrypt it to place orders while you are away — so if our servers were compromised, that key could be exposed. We will never claim we cannot access it.
    • You set the limits and the bot will not exceed them. It will not protect you from a wallet that stops working.
    • You can lose money, including everything you put in.

    What our verdict actually means

    We ask whether a wallet has won more often than the prices it paid imply. That is a measurement of the past. A wallet that has beaten its prices may stop tomorrow — skill can fade, edges get competed away, and markets change.

    “Edge detected” is not a recommendation and not a forecast. It means the past record is unlikely to be luck alone. Nothing more.

    When we cannot tell you anything

    Most wallets do not have enough settled history for any honest conclusion. When that is the case we will say so rather than guess. “Not enough history” is a real answer and you will see it often.

    Simulated results are optimistic

    The simulator fills every order instantly at the price shown, in full, with no spread. Real trading does none of those things. Treat simulated performance as a test of your rules, not a forecast of returns.

    If you go on to trade

    Any trading you do is on Polymarket, with your own wallet, entirely outside this service. You can lose money, including everything you put in. We have no visibility into it, no control over it, and no responsibility for it.

    What we are not

    • We are not financial advisors. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation.
    • We do not guarantee accuracy, uptime, or that any conclusion will hold.
    • We are not affiliated with Polymarket.

    In one sentence

    This is a measurement tool. It tells you what the past record supports and, more often than you might expect, that it supports nothing at all.

    New to this? The setup guide walks through everything, from picking wallets to going live.

    Backend unreachable — retrying…
    Confirm your email address to finish setting up your account.
    We have updated our terms. Live trading stays off until you accept them.
    LockstepMarkets DEMO
    Cash—
    ·
    Equity—
    ·
    P&L—
    Setup guide FREE
    Equity
    —
     
    Cash
    —
     
    Total P&L
    —
     
    Open positions
    —
     
    Win rate
    —
     

    Equity over time

    Paper account value, dashed line marks the starting balance.

    Open positions

    0
    MarketOutcomeSharesEntry NowValueP&L

    Recent activity

    Last 15 fills

      Track a wallet

      Tracked wallets

      0
      AddressLabelVerdictActive SeenCopiedLast trade Rules

      Polymarket’s profit leaderboard

      Raw profit over the selected window — useful for finding candidates, but not a recommendation. Profit rewards stake size and luck at long odds. See Who to copy for these same traders scored on whether they beat their own entry prices.

      #TraderAddress P&LVolume

      Skill or luck?

      Paste any Polymarket wallet — someone else’s, or your own — and find out whether its record is evidence of judgement or the shape luck makes. Profit alone cannot tell you: it rewards big stakes and long-odds wins, and both look identical to skill from the outside.

      Your own Polymarket address works too — it is the only way to find out whether your results so far mean anything. Nothing is shared with the wallet’s owner; all of this is public on-chain data.

      How the verdict is reached

      If a wallet has no skill, the number of markets it wins should equal the sum of the prices it paid. Someone who buys ten outcomes at 30¢ should win about three. Winning materially more than your own prices imply is the one thing that cannot be explained by stake size, luck at long odds, or having more money.

      That difference is measured in standard deviations (z). We also demand:

      • Enough history. Under 30 resolved markets, nothing is measurable.
      • A bar that accounts for the search. Screen 40 wallets at the textbook threshold and one or two clear it by pure chance. The bar rises with the number screened, so a lucky wallet cannot float to the top.
      • An edge you can actually capture. Wallets whose edge sits in markets resolving within two hours are excluded — that is reaction speed, and you will always be seconds behind.
      • No single-market results. If removing their best market turns them negative, that was one bet, not a method.

      Clearing every bar still is not a promise. It means the evidence is strong enough to be worth your money and attention — not that the next month will look like the last one.

      Observed trades

      Every trade seen from tracked wallets, and what the bot decided. Refreshes every 8s.

      TimeWalletSideMarket OutcomePriceTheir sizeDecision

      Run a backtest

      Wallet scope

      Simulated fills at the copied wallet's own price — ignores slippage and delay, so real results would be somewhat worse.

      Running…

      0%

      Simulated equity curve

      Dashed line marks the starting balance.

      Simulated trades

      0
      TimeMarketOutcome EntryCopyResultP&L

      Account

      Admin
      Email—
      Username—
      Plan—
      Member since—

      Trading filters

      Which markets the bot is allowed to copy into. Anything other than All markets is matched on the market’s title, which is right about three times in four — when it is unsure it skips rather than guesses, so a narrow filter will miss some markets you wanted. Leave it on All unless you have a reason.

      Ignore copied trades older than this.

      Skip markets resolving sooner than this. Set to 6+ to exclude 5-minute and hourly markets, where the copied wallet's edge is reaction speed — something a copy bot can't reproduce. 0 copies everything.

      Skip if the market moved this far from their fill price. Applied as-is to markets closing within the hour, doubled under a day, tripled beyond — slow markets drift without the signal going stale.

      Ignore source trades smaller than this.

      Sizing

      Nothing is placed for real until this is set. Every real order is sized against this number, not your wallet balance, so it is the true ceiling. Leave it at 0 to block real orders entirely.

      Copy at X% of their size.

      Below this, skip the trade entirely.

      Hard cap on any single copied order.

      Cap for one market.

      Cap across all open positions.

      Behaviour

      How often the engine checks tracked wallets.

      Exit when a position is down this much.

      When a wallet sells, sell the same share of your position as it sold of its own — a 10% trim sells 10% of yours, a full exit sells all of it.

      Off by default. With this on, any sale by a wallet sells your whole position, even when it is only trimming. It gets you out at the first sign of profit-taking, which can save you from a wallet that is about to be wrong — and can sell you out of one that is about to be right. Best kept for wallets you only half-trust; set it per wallet under that wallet’s Rules.

      Allow buying more of a token we already hold.

      Off by default. When a market you hold resolves in your favour, Lockstep claims the winnings for you, so the cash lands back in your wallet without a trip to Polymarket. Checked every 10 minutes while copy trading is on. It only ever turns winning shares into cash in the same wallet — nothing is sent anywhere else. Polymarket-account wallets claim for free; a wallet you created yourself needs a little POL for the network fee.

      Off by default, and we suggest leaving it off. With this on, real orders are placed behind wallets our own analysis says show no detectable edge. We measured that most profitable traders do not beat the prices they pay — and we will keep telling you so on every verdict. Turning this on means you have read that and decided anyway. Your money, your call.

      Off by default. With this on, every trade a tracked wallet makes is copied — any category, any market, however fast it resolves, however far the price has moved since, and however small their stake. The market filter, the minimum hours to resolution, the price-drift limit and the minimum sizes all stop applying.

      Most of what those filters refuse, they refuse for a reason we can show you: a market resolving in minutes is one where the wallet’s edge is reaction speed, and you are always seconds behind it. This copies those too.

      What stays on. Your bankroll, the maximum per trade, the per-position and total exposure caps, and the evidence gate that decides which wallets get real money at all. This turns off the filters, not the limits — without them one copied trade could take the account.

      Use the stop loss percentage above.

      Demo account

      Starting balance—
      Created—

      Wipes all simulated positions, orders and P&L. Tracked wallets and settings are kept.

      Copying for real

      Locked

      Your plan

      Two-step verification

      A code from your phone as well as your password. This account can hold a key that spends real money, and a password is the thing people reuse.

      Off

      Delete this account

      Removes your account, your tracked wallets, your simulated history and your stored trading key if you have one. Any Stripe subscription is cancelled first. This cannot be undone, and we cannot recover the account afterwards.

      Positions already open in your own Polymarket wallet are unaffected — they are yours, in your own wallet. Close them there first if you want them closed.

      Affiliate programme

      Give 10% off.
      Get £10 a sale.

      Share your link. Anyone who subscribes through it pays 10% less on their first invoice — and £10 lands in your earnings the moment they do.

      What this is, plainly: a one-level referral programme. We pay you £10 out of our own takings each time someone you refer buys a plan — once per person. There is nothing to buy or pay to take part, nothing is earned from anyone your referrals go on to refer, and it has nothing to do with trading or trading returns.

      Your link

      Yours for good. Send it anywhere.

      Getting paid

      The small print, in plain words

      1. A signup earns nothing. The commission is earned when they actually subscribe, not when they make an account — otherwise the scheme would just pay for throwaway emails.
      2. £10 is £10. The amount is fixed at the moment of the sale. If the rate changes later, what you have already earned does not.
      3. A refund takes it back. If they get refunded or charge back, the sale was not a sale and the commission is voided. You will see it listed as voided rather than quietly vanishing.
      4. Once per person. You earn £10 on their first payment, monthly or prepaid. Their renewals do not pay again.
      5. One level only. You earn on people who subscribe through your own link. Nothing is paid on anyone they go on to refer — there is no downline and no reward for recruiting affiliates.
      6. Nothing to pay in. Every account gets a link, free ones included. You never have to buy anything to earn, and nobody’s money but ours pays your commission.
      7. You cannot refer yourself. Checked on the mailbox, so plus-addressing does not get round it.
      8. How you are paid. By bank transfer when you ask, once you are owed £20; we will contact you for your bank details then. It is your income to declare — we do not deduct tax.

      Full terms in clause 18 of the Terms of Service.

      Signup funnel

      Each step is a subset of the one above, so the drop-offs are the story.

      Can we take money?

      Signups

      New accounts per day.

      Engine load

      What the shared watcher is actually polling. Distinct wallets is the number that matters for Polymarket's rate limits, not follows.